Pakistan are set to face Australia in the opening match of their three-match T20I series on Wednesday, January 28. The high-octane clash will be played at the iconic Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore, as both teams gear up for the upcoming T20 World Cup 2026.
Australia will miss Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Tim David, and Nathan Ellis, while all-rounder Glenn Maxwell is also skipping the tour. Pakistan, led by new captain Salman Ali Agha, will aim to take advantage of Australia’s relatively inexperienced bowling attack in the home series.
This article offers a detailed match prediction for the PAK vs AUS first T20I, analysing head-to-head records, pitch reports, probable XIs, and winning probabilities.
PAK vs AUS Match Prediction: Who Will Win 1st T20I?
Match Details:
Match: Pakistan vs Australia, 1st T20I
Date: January 28, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM IST
Venue: Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore
Live Streaming: SonyLIV in India
Live Broadcast: Sony Sports Network in India
PAK vs AUS Match Prediction, Head-to-Head Record
Pakistan and Australia have faced each other 28 times in T20Is. Australia have won 14 matches, while Pakistan have secured victory in 13 games.
In recent times, however, the contest has been one-sided. Australia have won the last five consecutive encounters against the Men in Green. They secured a clean sweep in their most recent home series in 2024 and a crucial victory in the 2021 World Cup semi-final.
Pitch Report & Conditions
The average first-innings total in T20Is at Lahore is 170 runs. Pakistan have successfully chased a target of 197 runs at the venue, while England posted the highest total of 209.
Fast bowlers have been the more prolific wicket-takers here, claiming 225 wickets compared to 105 by spinners. However, pacers concede runs at a higher economy rate (8.43) than spinners (7.85).
PAK vs AUS Weather Report
The weather in Lahore is expected to be cool and foggy. Temperatures will hover around 14°C during the match. While there is no rain forecast, heavy dew is expected to play a major role in the second innings, making it difficult for the spinners.
PAK vs AUS Match Prediction, Probable XIs
Pakistan Playing XI: Saim Ayub, Sahibzada Farhan (wk), Babar Azam, Fakhar Zaman, Salman Ali Agha (c), Shadab Khan, Mohammad Nawaz, Faheem Ashraf, Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, Abrar Ahmed.
Australia Playing XI: Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh (c), Cameron Green, Josh Inglis (wk), Marcus Stoinis, Cooper Connolly, Mitch Owen, Xavier Bartlett, Matt Kuhnemann, Adam Zampa, Ben Dwarshuis.
Toss Impact
In T20Is, teams have chosen to bowl first 57% of the time, but the win percentage for chasing sides is only 43%. Batting first is also a viable option at this venue. However, with the winter dew factor, the captain winning the toss may still be tempted to bowl first to avoid a wet ball in the second innings.
Form and Fitness
Babar Azam boasts an impressive T20I record at this venue, with 801 runs at an average of 44.50. Pakistan’s bowling will rely heavily on Shaheen Afridi, who has taken 69 wickets in all T20s at this ground.
With key bowlers missing, Xavier Bartlett and Adam Zampa will lead Australia’s attack. Their batting remains dangerous, with Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh in top form.
Score Prediction
Given the batting-friendly nature of the pitch and the high average scores, a first-innings total between 180 and 190 should be par. If Australia bat first, their aggressive top order could push the total even higher.
PAK vs AUS: Players To Perform Prediction
Pakistan: Babar Azam, Shaheen Afridi, Saim Ayub, Naseem Shah
Australia: Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Adam Zampa, Xavier Bartlett
PAK vs AUS: Best Batter Prediction
Who will score the most runs for Pakistan in the match?
Babar Azam or Fakhar Zaman
Who will score the most runs for Australia in the match?
Travis Head or Mitchell Marsh
PAK vs AUS: Best Bowler Prediction
Who will pick the most wickets for Pakistan in the match?
Shaheen Afridi or Naseem Shah
Who will pick the most wickets for Australia in the match?
Adam Zampa or Xavier Bartlett
Conclusion: Who Will Win the PAK vs AUS 1st T20I?
Australia will start as favourites, even with a depleted bowling attack. They have players who can take the game away in a few overs. However, Pakistan are a dangerous side at home, and if they bat first and put up a big score, their experienced pace attack could defend it.
Also read: ICC T20 World Cup 2026 warm-ups schedule finally announced
